What Are the Chances of a Nuclear War Occurring?
When we talk about nuclear war, we're referring to any sort of military clash that involves the use of nuclear weapons. Such a scenario is far from ordinary, with the potential to cause massive devastation and loss of life, certainly numbering in the hundreds of thousands.
These weapons came into existence during the Second World War, sparking continuous debate over the possibility of their use in large-scale conflicts. It’s a rather daunting thought. weird thing to bet on Nevertheless, our dedicated experts have sifted through the data, rolled up their sleeves, and laid out the odds!
Curious about the odds of a nuclear war breaking out? Let’s dive into the details!
What Are the Chances of a Nuclear War Occurring?
Factors That Could Heighten the Risk of a Nuclear Conflict
Who's in Control of Nuclear Arsenals Globally?
Which Nation Might Initiate a Nuclear War?
Is a Nuclear Conflict Unavoidable at This Point?
What's the Current Status of Nuclear Weapon Treaties?
What Are the Chances of a Nuclear War Occurring?
1.4% Per Year Based on Historical Data
One method to assess the likelihood of nuclear war is to consider past instances where such weapons have been deployed.
Historically, nuclear bombs were used in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, concluding the Second World War. From this, we estimate a yearly probability of 1.4%.
6.8% Risk by 2035
Back in 2015, a poll of 50 specialists indicated a nuclear conflict likelihood of roughly 6.8%, with India and Pakistan triggering the most concern. Additionally, Iran and North Korea were viewed as potential aggressors. Around 80% of these experts also anticipated proxy wars and other ambiguous conflict forms.
14% Odds between USA and China
Experts suggest that China's rapid ascension could involve them in the next major conflict. The U.S. shows a 14% possibility of engaging with China.
Former Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis of the U.S. Army remarked that a U.S. military engagement over Taiwan might inadvertently lead to a nuclear confrontation. There's also a 2% chance for Japan and China to get involved in such disputes.
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Factors That Could Heighten the Risk of a Nuclear Conflict
Ongoing Nuclear Weapon Testing
These lethal arsenals have been under scrutiny since production but gained international regulation starting in the 1960s.
The 1990s saw several countries sign treaties to halt such testing. Still, the USA and other major powers imposed self-restraints, while nations like Pakistan, India, and North Korea continued their experiments.
In the USA, there's talk among conservative circles about resuming tests. Escalating such activities could motivate other countries to do the same, heightening potential conflicts.
Threats Made by Countries
During his presidency, Donald Trump publicly threatened multiple nations, especially Iran and North Korea.
Such threats concerned experts, given that all mentioned nations possess nuclear arsenals, leading to heightened tension, like the assassination of a top Iranian military officer by the USA in early 2020.
Technological Errors
Back in November 1979, a supposedly imminent threat to the USA was detected by its Defense Department, prompting an immediate alert. Later, this was deemed a technical glitch.
Although a major alarm, it's one of several false threats that have nearly resulted in hasty weapon deployment by the USA, Russia, and the former Soviet Union. Until rectified, such blunders could cause unintended conflicts.
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Who's in Control of Nuclear Arsenals Globally?
The United States of America
The U.S. arsenal currently consists of around 4,018 warheads, either deployed or stored. Since the Cold War, this number has significantly decreased.
In 1967, the number peaked at 31,225, marking the highest arsenal count America has reached.
The Russian Federation
With approximately 6,400 warheads, Russia holds the largest collection, dominating over half of global reserves.
The former USSR was a significant nuclear entity, with a stockpile peaking at 45,000 in 1986.
Post-USSR dissolution in 1991, four nations emerged as nuclear powers, with three eventually relinquishing control to Russia.
The United Kingdom
In 1952, the UK became the world’s third nuclear power. It possesses about 225 warheads, with roughly 120 ready for launch.
France
Starting in 1960, France has been recognized by the NPT for its nuclear capability, boasting the fourth largest stockpile at present.
China
During the Cold War, China supplied uranium to the USSR, receiving developmental assistance in return.
The journey began in 1950, with China's first hydrogen bomb tested in 1967. Their count is now around 350.
India
India's nuclear efforts have been ongoing since 1974, and presently, they're believed to have around 160 warheads, despite lacking NPT recognition.
Pakistan
India’s advancements spurred Pakistan, culminating in nuclear trials in 1998. Like India, Pakistan’s NPT status remains contentious, yet they have close to 165 warheads.
North Korea
North Korea remains shrouded in secrecy concerning its nuclear inventory, estimated at 40 to 50.
Israel
Israel claims a passive stance regarding nuclear activity in the Middle East, neither confirming nor denying possession.
It's suspected that Israel clandestinely crafts these arsenals.
Which Nation Might Initiate a Nuclear War?
Pakistan and India
Agencies like the CIA often cite ongoing India-Pakistan tensions as the most probable source of a nuclear dispute, anticipated to peak around 2025 over the Kashmir divide.
During Kargil’s 1999 crisis, Pakistan nearly resorted to nuclear measures, prompting global denouncement.
China and the USA
China’s economic sprawl reduces its war prospects soon, yet tensions over Taiwan might escalate, risking conflict.
Taiwan isn't robust enough to counter China alone, potentially necessitating American intervention.
North Korea
The global stage has long regarded North Korea as a possible catalyst for nuclear tension, given its threats toward South Korea, Japan, and the USA.
Navy Adm. James Stavridis suggests a 10% chance of conflict erupting between North Korea and the USA.
Is a Nuclear Conflict Unavoidable at This Point?
Conflict with North Korea
In 2017, Kim Jong Un claimed inevitable nuclear conflict on Korean soil. Nonetheless, by 2020, he implied a solid military structure could deter large-scale offenses, keeping probabilities low.
Mutually Assured Destruction
Given current global armament capabilities, initiating a nuclear strike virtually ensures retaliatory obliteration. This discourages leaders, favoring traditional warfare.
Status Quo: Nuclear Weapon Treaties?
Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Arms
Endorsed in 2017, and activated in 2021, this treaty mandates signatories to cease nuclear development, trade, or war threats. Approved by 122 nations.
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
Renowned as the NPT, it aims to curb technological dissemination while endorsing peaceful nuclear utilization.
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